Cuba: ruling party and opposition await a hectic November 15

A call that is proposed as the continuation of the historic demonstrations of last July in Cuba.

The opposition to the government has called new protests for November 15 throughout the island to express their discontent over the arrests and repression four months ago.

However, the authorities have repeatedly denied the organizers permission to carry out the "Civic March for Change." The demonstration was first scheduled for November 20, but the government of Miguel Díaz-Canel denied the possibility of holding it, accusing the promoters of receiving incentives from the United States and seeking "regime change."

Despite denials, march organizers say they will take to the streets.

Now, the date of the call coincides with the reopening of the island to tourism, the country's main economic source, as well as with the celebrations planned for the 502nd anniversary of Havana, the capital. Therefore, President Díaz-Canel was emphatic in telling the parliamentarians that "nobody is going to spoil our party."

For their part, the organizers of the marches continue to spread the call on social networks, one of their main tools. "Our objective is to march against the violence and the release of the prisoners. We don't want more prisoners!", declared Yunior García Aguilera, one of the main promoters of the marches for EFE.

In the same way, Saily González, another of the organizers, stresses the non-conformity of many of the protesters in the face of the “abuses” by the Government during past protests. "We consider that his response was illegal, so we believe it is fair to insist on the march," she told AFP.

The expectation of the new demonstrations is high for both parties. The opposition hopes that they will make it possible to reiterate the discontent of a part of the population with the regime that was already expressed in July, in what many believe were the most massive demonstrations since the establishment of the communist government. Meanwhile, the Cuban authorities continue to emphasize that the protests are an operation orchestrated from abroad to destabilize the country.

A second chapter of the marches of July 11?

"I think the question is whether or not he can put the genie of 9/11 back in the bottle," University of Miami historian Michael Bustamante told Reuters. “November 15 will be a measure of that,” he added.

In addition, these have as an addition the denunciation of the protesters about the prisoners of the past demonstrations. A claim that is supported by the United States, which has threatened to impose more sanctions on Cuba for the wave of arrests after the protests.

However, the Cuban authorities have stressed that the arrests were legitimate and that they were based on the crimes of "public disorder, resisting arrest and vandalism." The organizers have also denounced that they have been threatened by the Government for continuing with the calls.

At the same time, these citizen expressions have the particularity of coinciding with the reopening of tourism and primary schools on the island.

For which Bustamante noted that "the stakes are high" in Cuba.

“This is the moment when the Cuban state is looking to turn around what has been a very bad year... and here you have this group saying 'no, we are choosing this specific moment to push for change politician'”, concluded the historian.

Social media as allies: “younger” and “connected” protests

The 'Archipiélago' Facebook group has taken a key role in organizing and promoting the demonstrations. It is a community on the web that has about 31,501 members and according to one of its publications, most of the members are between 25 and 44 years old. In addition, close to half of the group's members reside outside of Cuba.

According to various analysts, web posting has escaped the control of communist authorities.

Despite this, reprisals continue. García Aguilar himself told EFE that his Internet services have been cut off. According to the opponent, it is a reprisal to silence their "demands."

Even so, the arrival of the Internet on the island, despite its intermittents, has changed the way in which discontent is being developed and expressed. As William Leogrande, a professor at the American University in Washington and a specialist in relations between Cuba and the United States, comments for AFP, “the Cuban government feels very besieged by the poor state of the economy, by the strengthening of the embargo and because 9/11 July revealed the deep discontent of the people".

The United States, another point of tension for the new protests in Cuba

The Cuban government has been insistent on the role of the United States in the new protests. This Wednesday, the country's authorities affirmed that the US has had attempts to "destabilize" it by supporting the marches on November 15.

Before, the government had already denounced the organizers' alleged links with US institutions and congressmen, and they have even pointed out that they are seeking a "military intervention."

In addition, the Cuban president stated that "US diplomats frequently meet with the counterrevolutionary leaders. They provide them with guidance, encouragement, logistical support, and directly or indirectly finance their activities."

For its part, the US government has not specifically ruled on the demonstrations on November 15. However, last month a State Department spokesperson said they supported the right to protest on the part of Cubans and that the demonstrations were about public discontent and were not a "demonstration ... of the government's wishes." from the United States”

Even so, the specialist in relations between Cuba and the United States, William Leogrande, said that the embassy has always "been a channel to provide material aid to Cuban dissidents."

The Cuban government has also accused protest organizers through state media of receiving support from abroad.

A few days ago, a news program showed a phone call that García Aguilar had with an exile in Miami whom Cuba accused of “terrorist” attacks several decades ago. The opponent was accused of promoting "a soft coup d'état".

For his part, García Aguilar acknowledged having received a call from the head of the United States embassy in Havana, Timothy Zuñiga-Brown. However, he denied receiving any help. In addition, he denounced that the calls were recorded without his consent.

The organizer also denounced that the Cuban authorities have used the strategy of blaming the United States for the demonstrations.

A few days before November 15th, few can be indifferent on the Caribbean island.

With EFE, Reuters and AFP