Eight out of ten households expect to spend the same or less for this Christmas than last year, and the other two families expect to spend more. In business, the projection is that this higher consumption will allow them to sell 9% more during December.
In the midst of an economy on the way to recovery and with the pandemic that is still being faced, slight differences are noted in consumption habits for this celebration, according to data from a survey carried out by the Technological Business University of Guayaquil (UTEG). ).
81% of families consider that they will spend the same (35%) or less (46%) compared to what they bought in 2020 and approximately 19% consider that they will spend more in 2021. “A conservative outlook is in sight considering that we are still in an economic recession as a result of the pandemic”, indicates the analysis that was carried out based on surveys of 728 families from different social strata in Guayaquil.
The decision to spend less is greater in workers with a dependency relationship (47%) than in independent workers (43.2%). And “this can be seen as a product of the uncertain panorama that we face due to the pandemic and the proposals for labor reforms that are intended to be approved in the Assembly, but the other side of the coin is the people who find themselves in labor independence as a result of trade. and of the ventures where the economy has been revitalized, so it feels a little more stable in spending the same and even more compared to the year 2020″.
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And it is that those who have a formal job continue to fear whether or not they will continue with that stability. Although people are already going out, purchasing power has not changed and all this makes people stop consuming, comments economic analyst Héctor Delgado Oviedo.
“You can see a recovery from the previous year that was bad, that does not mean that it is good. It is not that we are reaching the levels before the pandemic, that would be the ideal, but at least it is a relief and we must continue with the same trend, ”he adds. To do this, it considers three aspects: security, tax and what will happen with the reform that will influence people's perception of whether they consume more or less, and also the labor issue, because the more work there is, the safer people are and they will consume. plus.
The effect of the pandemic last Christmas was reflected in billing nationwide. The Guayaquil Chamber of Commerce indicates that 6% less was billed for the festivities in December 2020 compared to the same month in 2019. At the national level, $19,489 million were billed.
And for 2021, amid the economic rebound and the reduction of restrictions, the billing for that month is expected to increase by 9%. “The signs of recovery are various. Some sectors, such as commerce, are already billing above pre-pandemic levels. This would mean that domestic demand is recovering”, refers to the Chamber.
What products are in demand are shown in the UTEG data on predominant Christmas purchases. The highest priorities that clothing and technology had in 2020 continue in 2021, with changes of a few percentage points, and the main destination of the least priority purchases remains in toys.
The approximate budget allocation would maintain the same trend. For most households, Christmas dinner falls within a budget of $100 to $200, while for gifts they usually spend more than $500 and for other items that may include the purchase of goods or others, the most common budget is between $ 200 and $400.
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A bigger turkey is one of the expectations for this Christmas dinner that will be like the return of family gatherings. And it is that a year ago, due to COVID-19, meetings of more than ten people were prohibited, there was a curfew for holidays and vaccines did not reach the country, now - without those restrictions and with 68% of the population vaccinated - dinners are expected to be a factor in recovery.
25% more turkeys produced for this season, returning to pre-pandemic levels
Chicken, turkey and pork did not stop being the options in 2020 when the Technological Business University of Guayaquil (UTEG) consulted what foods they usually prepare for Christmas dinner. For this menu, most households allocate between $100 and $200.
“It is complex to define a difference between these proteins because all three are highly consumed at these parties. However, we trust that this Christmas will be a date for family reunions, which must be carried out with all biosafety measures,” says Andrés Pérez, director of Institutional Relations at Pronaca. Last season there was a variation in sales and consumption compared to previous years, but "the demand normalized and this 2021 was reactivated."
The change occurred “not so much in terms of varying the protein but rather in the purchase portions, that is, the purchase of the turkey was maintained, but the size of the turkey was reduced, we believe that mainly because the meetings were smaller ”, adds Rubén Salazar, corporate manager of Corporación Favorita.
His expectation is that this year the level will be slightly higher than in 2019, since "there will be more family gatherings and the outlay will increase with larger sizes of turkeys and pork legs."
Regardless of whether Christmas purchases are made using cash or credit, debit or business cards, these payments are covered by the salary (61.68%) and by the thirteenth (35.85%), and to a lesser extent are as source of financing for these purchases are consumer loans (1.79%) and unsecured loans (0.69%). In the case of men, 71.79% of their expenses are based on salary and 24.64% comes from the tenth. In women there is a different behavior: 55.26% finance them with their salary and 42.95% with the 13th.
Families are thinking of investing in assets that, although they represent a long-term debt, add to their assets. The analysis of the changes in the consumption habits of the UTEG shows a reduction in other goods for which they plan to indebt. 5% of those surveyed plan to purchase vehicles compared to 6% who did so in 2020; 15% are planning to purchase appliances, while 20% did so last year. Where there is an upturn is in housing: 18% of those surveyed plan to acquire one, 4% more than in 2020.
